A recuperação da demanda no quarto trimestre ajudou Latam, Gol e Azul a registrarem um salto médio de 45,6% no “yield” - o valor médio pago por um passageiro para voar um quilômetro -, ante os três últimos meses de 2020 e um crescimento de 8,3% na comparação com o mesmo período de 2019, quando não havia pandemia. A tendência, como destacaram os executivos das companhias em teleconferências sobre os balanços nos últimos dias, é de passagens cada vez mais caras com a disparada do petróleo na esteira da guerra na Ucrânia.
Juntas, Azul, Latam (números globais) e Gol registraram um salto de 62% no volume de passageiros transportados no quarto trimestre na comparação com igual período de 2020, embora ainda 22,77% abaixo de 2019. Mas guerra fez o setor pisar no freio, reduzir a oferta prevista para os próximos meses e até postergar novas rotas.
A Gol viu sua receita operacional líquida saltar 54% no quarto trimestre de 2021 ante um ano antes, para R$ 2,9 bilhões. O crescimento, no entanto, não evitou que a companhia registrasse prejuízo líquido de R$ 2,8 bilhões, revertendo o lucro de R$ 16,9 milhões de um ano antes. A empresa atribuiu o resultado ao câmbio e a despesas não-recorrentes.
O grupo, que já conseguiu “yields” 16% acima do período pré-pandemia no quarto trimestre, afirmou que as sinalizações são favoráveis com a retomada da demanda corporativa. Segundo Paulo Kakinoff, presidente da Gol, já é possível ver aumento da procura por viagens por parte das empresas no pós-carnaval. A companhia aérea espera que seus yields, que no quarto trimestre fecharam em R$ 0,3858, cheguem perto de R$ 0,50.
Mas diante do conflito no leste europeu, que fez disparar o preço do combustível, a Gol cortou sua estimativa de receita líquida para o fechamento de 2022 em R$ 300 milhões, para R$ 13,7 bilhões. A perspectiva era aumentar a oferta de assentos entre 70% e 80% neste ano em relação a 2021, mas agora a companhia estima uma alta de 65% a 75%.
Na Latam, o cenário é parecido. O “yield” global da empresa registrou recuperação de 48% no quarto trimestre contra 2020, embora ainda esteja 5% abaixo do pré-pandemia - a empresa tem uma dinâmica diferente por estar mais exposta ao mercado internacional, mais lento hoje.
O grupo chileno registrou prejuízo líquido de US$ 2,75 bilhões no quarto trimestre, quase três vezes mais que a perda de US$ 962,4 milhões de um ano antes. As receitas da Latam entre outubro e dezembro somaram US$ 1,99 bilhão, mais que o dobro do que em 2020.
O mercado brasileiro, que representa mais de 50% da receita da Latam, tem sido foco de retomada. A empresa, entretanto, precisou pisar no freio: vai reduzir frequências e adiar novas rotas por aqui, conforme disse o presidente da Latam Brasil, Jerome Cadier, em conversa recente com o Valor.
Antes, a Latam tinha como estimativa aumentar a oferta de assentos em voos em 5% no primeiro trimestre em comparação com o período pré-pandemia. Com o novo cenário global, deve haver uma queda entre 5 e 6 pontos percentuais nessa projeção. No segundo trimestre a estimativa era aumentar a oferta entre 8% e 9%. Agora, deve haver uma queda de 10%.
O grupo ainda decidiu postergar para o terceiro trimestre a abertura das rotas Bauru, Montes Claros, Cascavel, Caxias do Sul, Juíz de Fora e Presidente Prudente. A Latam opera 49 destinos nacionais. Eram 44 antes da pandemia.
Já a Azul registrou um recorde na receita de R$ 3,7 bilhões no último trimestre de 2021, alta de 109% na comparação com 2020 e de 14,7% em relação a 2019. O ganho foi amparado sobretudo pela alta nas tarifas - a aérea voa sozinha em quase 70% das rotas. Mesmo assim, o grupo acabou fechando o trimestre com prejuízo líquido de R$ 945,7 milhões, revertendo o lucro líquido de R$ 543,4 milhões em igual trimestre de 2020, sobretudo diante das oscilações do câmbio e petróleo.
A Azul já conseguiu retomar algo como 70% do mercado corporativo de grandes empresas. As tarifas corporativas estão entre 30% e 40% mais caras do que antes da pandemia. O grupo, entretanto, tem estudado reduzir frequências em rotas menos rentáveis diante da disparada no preço dos combustíveis.
O setor aéreo conseguiu uma vitória em seus pleitos com o governo com a desoneração do PIS/Cofins sobre o combustível de aviação (QAV) - benefício que seria concedido apenas a gasolina, diesel e gás de cozinha. O passo é importante, segundo o presidente da Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Abear), Eduardo Sanovicz, mas não tem o poder de reduzir tão significativamente os custos.
“Agora estamos debatendo internamente com o Ministério da Infraestrutura, por meio da SAC (Secretária de Aviação Civil), outras possibilidades que podem nos ajudar a minimizar o brutal impacto nos custos”, disse. Historicamente, o combustível representa no Brasil 33% do custo das aéreas, percentual que já alcançou 40%. Segundo dados da Agência Nacional do Petróleo (ANP), o QAV saltou 15,9% desde o dia 3 de janeiro deste ano até o dia 28 de fevereiro.
Para além da discussão de redução de tributos, o setor tem demonstrado uma insatisfação com a política de paridade de preços da Petrobras com o mercado internacional. Segundo Sanovicz, cerca de 90% do QAV consumido pelas aéreas no Brasil é produzido pela Petrobras.
“Entendo o raciocínio do ponto de vista dos interesses da empresa. Mas isso impacta o Brasil, que tem apenas uma empresa que produz o QAV”, disse. “É hora de a Petrobras se abrir ao debate e encontrar um modelo que acha correto. Esse não está sendo positivo para a economia nacional.”
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